WITH APOLOGIES TO PORTLANDA AND THE U.S. SENATE

BRIEF SCRIPT OUTLINE FOR PORTLANDIA TV SHOW ON TPA AND TPP



SCENE SETTER

SCENE 1

(wide camera shot of a small, well trimmed front yard of a hundred-year-old modest clapboard two-story house, with a wide-open, warm and inviting covered entry way.)

(the camera pans through a front window of the house to focus on owner Sen. Ron Wydon in the middle of a telephone conversation)

Sen. Wydon casually dressed for the week-end away from Washington – wearing a cardigan sports coat over an open collar blue dress shirt and not-well worn jeans – is seen standing up and talking in a friendly, but distinct manner on the telephone.  Here is his side of the conversation –

It goes like this –


Wydon – “Yes, Orrin, I understand.  You know that I have consistently voted for trade legislation”

(unheard response from Sen. Hattch) ......

.......................

Wydon – “You know I am committed to free trade.  It’s something that has made my state of Oregon great.  I don’t have to tell you how exports have added to the state’s economy – and its workforce.”

.......................

Wydon – “Yes Orrin.  I know”

..........................

Wydon – “I understand.  No one knows better the benefits that trade has bestowed on this state.”

...........................

Wydon – “No.  It is not a partisan issue with me.  What Democratic senator in his right mind would oppose both you and the President?  It is something different.   Nothing personal.”

...............................

Wydon – “Hold on for a minute Orrin.  I can’t understand what you’re saying.  There seems to be some noise on the line.  No, its coming from outside.  I’ll call you right back.”




SCENE 2

(camera pans backwards from the window to a gathering of about a half-zone middle aged – from early to almost elderly men and women – standing on the front sidewalk and dressed in well-worn jeans that look vintage Salvation Army or kept since college days 40 years ago.)

The demonstrators – lined up in a row of six – are holding up hand-made signs.  One for each.


One placard is a enlarged full-face photo of Sen. Wydon.  Another is a cartoon balloon tag pointing to Sen. Wydon’s open mouth – saying:  “I Believe in Transparency.  That’s Why A Secret Trade Deal Sounds Good to Me.  We’ll have to push it through quick with FAST TRACK.”

Two others, standing closer to each other – perhaps husband and wife, hold print-shop signs.  One says – “Ron Wydon:  New York’s 3rd Senator and Orrin Hattch’s New Best Friend.”  The wife – or loyal live-in partner since the old days – holds a similar placard reading – “Wydon of New York.  Out-Smarted by Orrin Hattch on “Fast Track” & Corporate Trade”

(aside – the woman is looking intensely at her pink i-Phone.”

The ruckus gradually peters out, leaving a single demonstrator – and from the looks of him a survivor of the early stages of the Baby Boomers – continues to shout in a distinct and loud tone – “Hell No, We Won’t Go!  Hell No, We Won’t Go!  Hell No, We Won’t Go!”

The group dissipates after a strenuous ten-minute workout.


(The camera pans up to the sky capturing a white commercial advertising blimp – like those common on sale days at auto dealer parks.  Attached to the side is a banner reading – “Ron Wydon!  It’s no to you.  Don’t betray us.”)


The sky is clear and cloudless.




SCENE 3

(Camera returns, peering again through the front window as Sen. Wydon scratches and then shakes his head in wonderment.)


The senator dials the phone – waits a brief few seconds and says –


Wydon –  “Hello Orrin.  Sorry about that.  Just a little disturbance out front.   It’s all taken care of now.”

...........................

Wydon – Orrin.  Just can’t do it.  It has nothing to do with reason and everything to do with the game.  You know what I mean.   Getting reelected sometimes means taking less than reasonable approaches.   That’s what’s happening here.

..........................


Wydon – You see this is the last chance for my aging Oregon “free spirts” to have a go-round in life.  Mostly greyed and wrinkled, they view it as their final opportunity to be relevant, to bring back their youth and optimism of decades ago.  They just want to save the world from itself one more time.  Get away from the tv set and experience life again – if at least for a fleeting few moments.  You know what I mean.  You lived the turmoil of the ‘60s.  I think they had that decade in Utah.  You can understand, can’t you?


Sen. Hattch – a muffled “No” is heard from the ear pieces.  (For a moment Sen. Wydon holds the phone away from his ear.)

......................


Wydon – I just witnessed the plain truth of what I was saying.  These constituents of mine want to take a last stab on making change happen before they are carried away to the great beyond.  And TPP and TPA is their target – more by happenstance then by intention.  For them, time and circumstances have collided.

.....................


Wydon – But they are my constituents and I’m their’s.

.........................


Wydon – Yes you may be right, but I have a responsibility to my voters.  


............................


Wydon – Yes I recognize that you answer to a higher authority in Utah.  It’s not quite like that in Oregon.

...............................


Wydon – I have a responsibility to make them comfortable in their fading years.  And if that means opening the books on TPP and TPA, then so be it.

...........................


Wydon – No choice.  Can’t do it.


...........................


Wydon – Maybe things will be different after next November.


................................

Wydon – See you in Washington.

How We Got Here (Or How We Didn’t) – A TPA Timeline

While we’re all waiting around to see if a bipartisan, bicameral Trade Promotion Authority bill emerges from negotiations on Capitol Hill that are taking longer than hoped, it might be interesting to see how we got here – or how we didn’t – and how positions on TPA kept changing, especially the Administration’s views.
We’re put together a timeline on the ever-changing state-of-play on TPA taken from articles published in WTD over the past 18 months, beginning around the time President Obama nominated Michael Froman as his US Trade Representative.

June 7, 2013 – President Obama wants Trade Promotion Authority “as soon as possible,” Michael Froman – his nominee to be the next US Trade Representative – said yesterday.  “TPA is a critical tool," Mr. Froman told the Senate Finance Committee at his confirmation hearing, pledging to work with Congress to craft the legislation.

September 30, 2013 – President Obama told his President's Export Council yesterday that he needs TPA and is hoping trade is one area where he can get “good bipartisan support” from Congress.  The President said he will need TPA in order to push ahead with the two main items on his trade agenda – the TransPacific Partnership, which he said is “very far along” toward conclusion this year, and the recently launched Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership.

December 16, 2013 – Top Congressional lawmakers reached agreement on Friday on legislation that would give President Obama Trade Promotion Authority in order to complete the ongoing TransPacific Partnership and future trade agreements.  ....  They plan to formally introduce the bill shortly after Congress reconvenes in January and hope to move it through Congress quickly, so that the Administration can complete the TPP negotiations.

January 10, 2014 – Key Congressional lawmakers yesterday formally introduced what they hailed as “bipartisan, bicameral” legislation to give the President Trade Promotion Authority – but without the support of any House Democrats.

January 17, 2014 – Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont) said yesterday he intends to mark up legislation (S 1900) giving President Obama Trade Promotion Authority “soon” after Congress returns from next week's recess.

January 29, 2014 – President Obama last night called for Congress to work with him on bipartisan Trade promotion Authority so that he can bring home job-creating free trade agreements with Europe and the Asia-Pacific.


U TURN –


January 30, 2014 – Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (Nev) yesterday told backers of Trade Promotion Authority not to push him to bring legislation to the floor anytime soon.

February 4, 2014 – President Obama will push to secure Trade Promotion Authority from Congress so that his Administration can conclude two major trade deals that will boost US exports and create higher-paying jobs, White House spokesman Jay Carney told reporters yesterday.  The President will be working both sides of the political aisle in order the get TPA done, the White House spokesman said.  Mr. Obama hosts House Democrats this evening at the White House and speaks to Senate Democrats on Thursday.

February 6, 2014 – White House spokesman Jay Carney yesterday declined to say whether President Obama will push for quick action on Trade Promotion Authority, telling reporters that it is up to Congress to make the call when to vote.

February 12, 2014 – Incoming Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-Ore) said yesterday he feels no urgency to move on legislation (S 1900) giving President Obama Trade Promotion Authority.  The senator told reporters he wants to take time to talk to committee members and other senators before taking any action on a bill.


U TURN


March 4, 2014 – President Obama renewed his call for Trade Promotion authority Tuesday, saying it is essential for carrying out his trade agenda, including completion of the ongoing TransPacific Partnership negotiations.

June 19, 2014 – Two senior Democratic members of Congress said yesterday it seemingly makes little sense to pass Presidential Trade Promotion Authority this year as the two major trade agreements the United States is negotiating are well on their way to fruition.

July 18, 2014 – Every one of the Republican members of the House Ways and Means Committee told the White House yesterday not to complete the TransPacific Partnership agreement until President Obama has Trade Promotion Authority in place.

July 24, 2014 – Bringing home a “high-standard” TransPacific Partnership agreement will pave the way for Congressional approval of Presidential Trade Promotion Authority, Acting Deputy US Trade Representative Wendy Cutler said yesterday.



U TURN


October 31 ,2014 – His primary task now, US Trade Representative Michael Froman said yesterday, is to get good trade agreements with the 12 nations participating in the TransPacific Partnership and a likewise good agreements with the European Union under the TransAtlantic Trade and Investment Partnership.  It will be Congress’ responsibility to deal with granting the Obama Administration special Trade Promotion Authority.

November 20, 2014 – “Whenever the opportunity exists” the Administration will push Congress to take up special Trade Promotion Authority – but so far the time is not ripe, US Trade Representative Michael Froman told an audience at the Woodrow Wilson Center yesterday.



U TURN



December 16, 2014 – The Administration is hoping that Congress will take up legislation to give President Obama Trade Promotion Authority early next year, paving the way for completion of negotiations on the TransPacific Partnership, White House chief economic advisor Jeffrey Zients said yesterday.  “We need to get TPA done and then get TPP across the finish line,” Mr. Zients said.

January 14, 2015 – President Obama told Congressional leaders of both political parties yesterday he thinks trade will be one area for bipartisan cooperation in the new Congress.

January 21, 2015 – President Obama last evening called on lawmakers from both sides of the political aisle to give him Trade Promotion Authority, even as he acknowledged past trade agreements “haven’t always lived up to the hype.”...Earlier in the day, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) said that he wants to move “carefully but quickly” on Trade Promotion Authority legislation.


U TURN



January 23, 2015 – The Administration stands ready to do all it can to secure the votes needed to pass Trade Promotion Authority legislation, US Trade Representative Michael Froman assured House and Senate lawmakers yesterday.  ....  Both Ways and Means Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wisc) and Finance Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) said passage of TPA is their top priority.  The two lawmakers are still in consultations – along with Finance ranking Democrat Ron Wyden (D-Ore) – to see if they can reach agreement on a TPA bill.  Sen. Hatch told reporters he still hopes to see action on TPA in February.  Mr. Ryan declined to predict timing, citing the ongoing discussions.

February 2, 2015 – President Obama is less concerned about how many House Democrats he can deliver to vote for legislation giving him Trade Promotion Authority than in just getting the bill passed, White House spokesman Josh Earnest said Friday.

February 16, 2015 – House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wisc) hopes to have a “bipartisan, bicameral” Trade Promotion Authority bill ready “pretty soon” – but acknowledged the legislation is still under negotiation.

February 20, 2015 – President Obama used his Saturday weekly address to the nation to make his latest push for Congress to grant him Trade Promotion Authority.



U TURN



February 24, 2015 – US Trade Representative Michael Froman said yesterday it is time to get Trade Promotion Authority legislation done – but it also needs to be updated to reflect the way the global economy works.

February 25, 2015 – An effort to craft bipartisan Trade Promotion Authority legislation has hit a snag in the Senate, threatening to delay introduction of a measure that President Obama is urging Congress to pass.

February 26, 2015 – With efforts still underway to finalize a bipartisan Trade Promotion Authority bill, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) opted to postpone a hearing planned for today on the trade agenda.

March 2, 2015 – Lack of Trade Promotion Authority is having an impact in the ongoing TransPacific Partnership negotiations, where countries are hesitant to make compromises on politically sensitive issues that might be changed by Congress, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said Friday.

March 4, 2015 – Senate action on Trade Promotion Authority legislation is not likely to happen now until April because of a continued stalemate over the “fast track” legislative process, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-Hatch) told reporters yesterday.

March 5, 2015 – Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) and ranking Democrat Ron Wyden (Ore) are still trying to strike a deal on a bipartisan Trade Promotion Authority bill – but a number of issues remain, according to Sen. Wyden’s office.


And then.........

CATO INSTITUTE BLOG ON PRESIDENT OBAMA AND TRADE -- RIGHT ON!

HERE’S A BLOG ISSUED BY THE CATO INSTITUTE LAST WEEK ON THE PRESIDENT’S STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS.

WE COULDN’T HAVE WRITTEN IT BETTER –

President Obama Offers Free Trade as Reluctantly as Possible

By K. WILLIAM WATSON SHARE

President Obama has proven once again that he is his own worst enemy on trade policy. Despite expectations that he would make a strong push for trade promotion authority (TPA), President Obama offered only quick mention of trade in this week’s State of the Union address. 

Although he did ask Congress to pass TPA to help him complete free trade agreements, the president backed up that request with some of the weakest arguments possible. I’ll give you the entire two paragraphs here:

21st century businesses, including small businesses, need to sell more American products overseas. Today, our businesses export more than ever, and exporters tend to pay their workers higher wages. But as we speak, China wants to write the rules for the world’s fastest-growing region. That would put our workers and businesses at a disadvantage. Why would we let that happen? We should write those rules. We should level the playing field. That’s why I’m asking both parties to give me trade promotion authority to protect American workers, with strong new trade deals from Asia to Europe that aren’t just free, but fair.

“Look, I’m the first one to admit that past trade deals haven’t always lived up to the hype, and that’s why we’ve gone after countries that break the rules at our expense. But 95 percent of the world’s customers live outside our borders, and we can’t close ourselves off from those opportunities. More than half of manufacturing executives have said they’re actively looking at bringing jobs back from China. Let’s give them one more reason to get it done.

This is essentially a protectionist argument in favor of trade agreements. According to the president, the trade agreements his administration is negotiating will protect American workers from (1) China, (2) unfair competition, and (3) outsourcing. They’ll level the playing field and bring back jobs to America.”

Isn’t that what tariffs and subsidies are for?!

Free trade and free trade agreements are meant to open up the U.S. economy to foreign competition and opportunity. The result is economic growth, innovation, better quality of life, more jobs, higher wages, and international peace. President Obama could have based his argument on any one of those rationales. He instead chose to talk about who makes the rules. I suppose it shouldn’t surprise anyone that this president thinks economic success comes from government writing the best rules.

At the core of this focus on rules is the call for enforcement. The president says “we’ve gone after countries that break the rules at our expense.” He may be referring to bringing cases at the World Trade Organization, where the United States has won nine cases, mostly against China, since Obama took office. During that same period the United States lost 15 cases brought by other members—we are a notorious trade scofflaw, even when we write the rules. Ironically, the most common way the United States breaks the rules is through abusive antidumping measures, which technically count as part of Obama’s “enforcement” efforts. Sometimes, though, breaking the rules simply means selling lots of goods at low prices. For example, in a past address President Obama touted actions taken to protect the U.S. tire industry from mundane Chinese competition.

This enforcement rhetoric appeals to the ranks of trade-skeptic Democrats who routinely use foreign rule-breaking as an excuse for protectionism and a reason to oppose trade agreements. 

To Obama’s credit, perhaps knowing that the president is also a protectionist will convince some of those Democrats to support his trade agenda.

I doubt our negotiating partners overseas find the president’s “pitch” at all reassuring. Calling our trade partners cheaters who need to be reined in with new rules that benefit American companies and keep jobs in America is what protectionists do when arguing against free trade. It is a sad and cynical way to promote free trade agreements. 

DOHA IS DEAD! DOHA IS DEAD! DOHA IS DEAD!

At a recent trade forum in Washington, a veteran agricultural trade hand shared a panel with some US trade officials.  He said three times in an hour – “DOHA IS DEAD!”

On the same panel a ranking US agriculture official announced – in “meek” terms – new-found US support for a renewed Doha Development Agenda which since 2008 has been in “deep freeze.” The “new” attitude emerges as the United States takes credit for breaking the deadlock in Geneva with India over a much-touted Trade Facilitation Agreement and getting China to go along with restarted Information Trade Agreement talks in Geneva.  The latter talks have gotten stuck again, but most in Geneva say it is only temporary.

The USTR official told WTD that the United States and other Doha “skeptics” are taking another look at the multilateral trade negotiations – which officially got underway in late 2001, stalled in 2003 and again in 2008 and now can only be described as being on life support.

But the official indicated that the re-start must follow US strictures.  Members will have to take a re-look at the new realities of trade on the ground – especially in agriculture.  Washington will not agree to a resumption from where negotiations left off in 2008.  That already is a well espoused public US position made here and in Geneva.

The official, when talking about agriculture, was not specific about whether the talks should start from scratch, whether some controversial issues should be spun off for expedience or whether negotiators should simply set a date for conclusion and get done what can be done in that time-frame.

Developing countries – that see far more immediate and long-lasting benefits from a full multilateral round – are equally insistent on getting a re-start.  Agriculture is essentially squared away in the 2008 Doha modalities, they say.  And getting agreement on what was intended to be the essence of the Doha agreement should not be difficult – if the political momentum exists.

WTO Director General Roberto Azevêdo is sympathetic and has called for a roadmap by next July showing how members can complete the round.  And some are extrapolating that completion of the DDA could happen by the end of next year.  New European Commissioner for Trade Cecilia Malmström said that during a visit to Geneva last week.

Already getting down to work are several long-idled Doha negotiating committees under direction from the Director General.

Mr. Azevêdo appears to be “betting the bank” – and what’s left of the WTO’s reputation along with his own reputation – on success.

But to get back to the “Doha is Dead” proponent.  It is simple reality, he said, adding that “the world has to get over it.”  Bilateral, regional and plurilateral agreements – even those based in Geneva – are working well.  He suggested that abandoning those approaches to global trade liberalization would be counterproductive.

Over the past half decade during the Doha “freeze,”  I have noticed during similar conferences, seminars and simple speeches in a variety of forums an underlying snigger that followed any mention of Doha.  In recent months that rumbling of skepticism has become more pronounced – turning into chuckles.  At the most recent agriculture conference, the grumbling transformed itself into audible laughter.

I don’t know how the Doha renewal effort will work out.  But when the grumbling and giggles turn into full-throated belly laughs, I’ll give in.  

Jim Berger

FREE TRADE AND FREE COFFEE

   Catch this series of photos by the Japanese agri news press a week ago on how US Trade Representative Froman disposes of an anti-free trade coffee cut holder during an early morning  anti-free trade demonstration outside his office.  Smooth, but noticed.

http://english.agrinews.co.jp/?p=2943

A PRESIDENTIAL CONVERSION

Was it an overnight – “born again” – conversion?

Until a few days ago President Obama was unable to get the world “trade” out of his mouth.  The most he could say from the beginning of his Administration in 2009 was “exporting Made-in-America products.”

But last week he spoke a tidal wave of remarks on how good trade is – first to the Business Roundtable (a business grouping of multinationals) and then another organization of corporate giants – the National Foreign Trade Council.  He suddenly was lecturing the world on the benefits of trade and why he needed special Presidential trade negotiating authority to negotiate trade deals.

The deluge of trade speak from the Administration started Wednesday morning when new Undersecretary of the Treasury for International Affairs Nathan Sheets commented to a Brookings Institution get-together that the President himself and his employees would work hard to make the argument that trade is good for everybody.  He said the Administration intents to make the free-trade argument to anybody who will  listen, including members of Congress.

Difference between Day and Night?  Possibly.

No one can deny that last Wednesday’s remarks came as a big surprise.

Signals from Administration officials on the need for Trade Promotion Authority to conclude the ongoing TransPacific Partnership and the TransAtlantic Trade and Investment Partnership have been stated quietly over the past year.  But even a few days before the Presidential pronouncement, US Trade Representative Michael Froman was saying that the aim of the Administration was to negotiate good trade agreements – and then Congress would approve them.  He was quoting remarks by President Obama made earlier in the year during a visit to Mexico.

(An aside – Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker deserves kudos for unabashedly saying almost since her first days in office that, of course, the President needs TPA – not only to settle the now longer-running than expected trade agreements with the Asia-Pacific and Europe, but, obviously, to pave the way for more US sales around the world.

So why the conversion?    The answer –

        Administration observers and some members are right in saying that President Obama is looking around for a “legacy” that will make his two terms of “do-nothingness” in office into something tangible.

But why is the President all-of-a-sudden serious about the benefits of trade, even pledging to plead the case with his friends on Capitol Hill – and mostly long-time Democratic opponents of trade deals.  He told the Business Roundtable that he intends to tell them to stop fighting “old trade wars” – like the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Central American Free Trade Agreement.
   
        It is convenient to point out that Candidate Obama in 2008 had pledged to renegotiate NAFTA.  He also voted against CAFTA in 2005.

We will see.  And, coming from a long-time Washington trade guru, “We will believe it when we see it – on the Hill.”

At January’s state-of-the union address, President Obama called on Congress to give him trade promotion authority.  But the silence from the White House in the months that followed until last week have been deafening.

My prediction is that the rhetoric will fade into nothing once again.  Recent indications are leading toward that result.

Number 1, although the White House posted a transcript of the President’s remarks to the Business Roundtable on its webpage, a more direct plea for TPA was presented that evening via videotape at the centennial dinner celebration of the National Foreign Trade Council.  Neither the video nor transcript of those remarks can be found.  (We recorded it and posted it on WTD’s website under “primary sources.”)

Something else missing that evening was US Trade Representative Michael Froman, who decided to skip the event despite the virtual presence of the President and the personal appearance of  his direct White House boss, Valerie Jarrett – an affront to the President’s message and to the office of the USTR.

In attendance for the celebration were three former US Trade Representatives and incoming Senate Finance Committee Chairman Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah).
 
       The current USTR, however, was missing – a blatant affront to the President’s message – if it were sincere – and to the office of the USTR.
 
       Number 2.  When the President delivers a speech or makes an important remark during the week, it is usually followed by a Saturday White House podcast.  Not this time.  The weekly Saturday lecture by Professor Obama was about economic job growth – with only a brief phrase on “exporting American products.”

Is the TPA “teach-in” from last Wednesday for real – or a long-delay April Fool’s joke?  Will “trade” be uttered out loud more than a few times by the President over the next finally final two years in office?


Let us know what you think.


Jim Berger

Here’s something for the books.

Every so often the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security publishes in the Federal Register a cautionary note about who you might not want to do high-technology export business with.

Here’s one from earlier this year –

Ming Suan Zhang, Inmate Number – 00819-005, Moshannon Valley Correctional Institution, 555 Geo Drive, Philipsburgh  PA    16866